BCREA 2024 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update: Anticipated Rebound in BC Housing Market Amid Changing Interest Rate Landscape

Vancouver, BC – January 25, 2024. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) unveiled its much-anticipated 2024 First Quarter Housing Forecast today, shedding light on the trajectory of the province's real estate landscape.

The forecast paints an optimistic picture, projecting a 7.8% increase in Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in BC, reaching a total of 78,775 units for the year. Looking ahead to 2025, the momentum is expected to persist, with MLS® residential sales forecasted to climb even higher, reaching 86,475 units.

Brendon Ogmundson, Chief Economist, highlighted the shift in market dynamics, stating, "In 2023, the housing market faced headwinds due to elevated mortgage rates, but the recent decline in fixed mortgage rates and potential Bank of Canada rate cuts present an optimistic outlook for 2024." Ogmundson emphasized the delicate equilibrium anticipated for the year, foreseeing a harmonious interplay between rising sales and normalizing inventories, resulting in a relatively stable pricing environment.

The crucial factor in shaping the market's trajectory lies in the Bank of Canada's potential policy adjustments. With progress made in addressing inflation concerns and a softer economic growth and employment landscape, there is a growing expectation that the Bank of Canada will ease its policy rate, giving a further boost to provincial home sales. The intricate relationship between inventory dynamics and pricing will be pivotal, and the forecast assumes a normalization of new listings following a subdued activity period last year.

While acknowledging lingering economic risks, the overall sentiment is one of cautious optimism. The expectation of new listings returning to a more standard pattern post-activity lull suggests a balanced market in 2024, characterized by stability in pricing. The intricate dance between interest rates, inventory, and economic conditions sets the stage for what could be a transformative year in British Columbia's real estate landscape.

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Source: BCREA 2024 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update